- The AUD/USD pair is bullish as long as it stays above the lower median line (lml).
- Only a new lower low invalidates the upside scenario.
- The US data should be decisive later today.
The AUD/USD price dropped a little but the bias remains bullish. Yesterday, the US Unemployment Claims indicator came in at 196K in the last week versus 191K estimates and above 183K in the previous reporting period.
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In the early morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised inflation outlook and signaled more hikes in the upcoming monetary policy meetings.
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Furthermore, the Chinese CPI reported a 2.1% growth versus the 2.2% growth expected, while PPI registered a 0.8% drop compared to the 0.5% drop estimated.
Later, the US and Canadian data could have a big impact on the greenback. The US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment is expected to jump from 64.9 points to 65.0, this could be good for the USD. The Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations and FOMC Member Waller Speaks could bring some action as well.
Canada is to release high-impact figures as well. The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% versus 5.0% in the previous reporting period, while Employment Change may drop from 104.0K to 15.0K.
AUD/USD price technical analysis: Strong demand zones
As you can see on the hourly chart, the price found strong demand on the 0.6859 historical level. Now it has turned to the upside.
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The pair has also failed to stabilize below the 23.6% retracement level signaling that the downside movement could be over.
Personally, I’ve drawn an ascending pitchfork. The lower median line (lml) represents a dynamic support, so as long as it stays above this level, the pair could come back higher. The first upside target is represented by the weekly pivot point of 0.7000.
Technically, as long as it stays above the lower median line (ml), the rate could be attracted by the median line (ml). The upside scenario could be invalidated by a new lower low.
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