- The EUR/USD pair maintains a bearish bias despite temporary rebounds.
- The BOC could have a big impact on the USD today.
- A valid breakout through the upper median line (uml) activates a larger rebound.
The EUR/USD price rebounded in the last hours. The pair is now trading at 1.0693 at the time of writing. The bias remains bearish despite temporary rebounds or range movements.
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The currency pair crashed yesterday as the German Factory Orders reported a 0.4% drop versus the 2.7% growth estimated. The Eurozone Retail Sales reported only a 0.0% growth compared to the 0.2% growth forecasted.
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Today, German Industrial Production registered a 0.3% growth compared to the 0.7% growth forecasted. Furthermore, French Trade Balance and Italian Retail Sales also came in worse than expected.
Later, the US Trade Balance is expected to be -75.8B compared to -64.2 B. Still, the BOC is seen as the most important even today. The Overnight Rate is expected to remain at 4.50%.
The BOC Rate Statement should have an impact on the USD as well. Tomorrow, the US Unemployment Claims and the Eurozone Revised GDP could have an impact.
Positive US data during the week could help the greenback to resume its appreciation versus the other major currencies.
EUR/USD Price Technical Analysis: Retesting key zone
Technically, the EUR/USD pair stabilized below the 61.8% (1.0737) retracement level, signaling a downside reversal in the medium to the long term.
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Now, the pair has failed to return toward the lower low of 1.0635, signaling exhausted sellers. It could test and retest the immediate resistance levels in the short term before going down again.
The weekly pivot point of 1.0710 and the descending pitchfork’s upper median line (uml) represent upside obstacles. The currency pair could extend its downside movement if it stays below these resistance levels. Only a valid breakout through these levels may announce a larger rebound.
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