- The bias is bullish despite minor retreats.
- The ECB Press Conference should bring high action.
- XAU/USD could extend its growth if it stays above the median line (ML).
The gold price is bullish in the short term. It seems determined to extend its growth. The metal is trading at $1,921 at the time of writing.
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Fundamentally, the yellow metal stays higher despite minor retreats, as the US reported poor data yesterday. The Retail Sales indicator reported a 0.4% drop versus the 0.3% drop estimated. After the 3.2% growth in the previous reporting period, Core Retail Sales dropped by 0.1%, matching expectations, while Empire State Manufacturing came in at -24.6 points versus the -7.9 points expected.
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In addition, the PPI fell by 0.1% even if the traders expected a potential 0.3% growth, while Core PPI registered a 0.0% growth, less than the 0.4% growth estimated.
Today, the Australian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate came in better than expected, boosting the price of gold. Later, the US is to release the Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Building Permits, and Housing Starts data.
Still, the most important event of the day is represented by the EBC. The European Central Bank is expected to increase the Main Refinancing Rate by 50 bps. The Monetary Policy Statement and the ECB Press Conference should bring high action on all markets, not only the XAU/USD.
Gold price technical analysis: Potential bullish resumption
From the technical point of view, the XAU/USD dropped a little after registering false breakouts above the ascending pitchfork’s warning line (WL1). The precious metal has tested the weekly R2 (1,909) before turning to the upside.
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The bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the ascending pitchfork’s median line (ml). The descending pitchfork’s median line (ml) represents dynamic support. The rate registered only false breakdowns below it, signaling the retreat could end.
Consolidating above the immediate downside obstacles and registering only false breakdowns. The upper median line (uml) is a potential target if the XAU/USD rallies.
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