- Staying near the upper median line (UML) signals an imminent breakout.
- The fundamentals should move the rate during the week.
- A new lower low activates further drop.
The gold price continues to move sideways in the short term. Meanwhile, the fundamentals should bring strong action during the week. The metal is trading at $1,979 at the time of writing. It seems determined to hit new lows.
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The USD’s rally forced the yellow metal down again. Fundamentally, the greenback received a helping hand from the US data on Friday. Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, Personal Income, and Personal Spending came in better than expected, while the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment and Core PCE Price Index aligned with expectations.
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Today, only the US data could have a big impact. The ISM Manufacturing PMI could increase from 46.3 points to 46.8 points. ISM Manufacturing Prices could be reported higher at 49.4 points versus the 49.2 points in the previous reporting period.
Final Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain steady at 50.4 points, while Construction Spending may report a 0.2% growth. Better than-expected data should boost the USD, so XAU/USD could drop deeper.
The downside pressure is high in the short term, but it remains to see how it will react after the RBA, FOMC, and the ECB. Furthermore, the US is to release high-impact data such as JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, Unemployment Claims, Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Change, and the Non-Farm Employment Change.
Gold price technical analysis: Downside pressure
As you can see on the hourly chart, the rate is trapped between $2,015 and $1,969 levels. It has dropped again after retesting the upper median line (UML). This represents a dynamic resistance, so the yellow metal could extend its drop if it stays below this upside obstacle.
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Technically, the former lows could represent downside obstacles. Staying near the upper median line (UML) may announce an imminent breakout. Jumping and stabilizing above this dynamic resistance should announce that the retreat ended and that the rate could approach and reach at least the $2,015 resistance. On the contrary, staying below the UML and making a new lower low activates further drop.
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