© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar’s net positioning turned net short in the latest week for the first time since mid-July 2021, according to calculations by Reuters and U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday.
The value of the net short dollar position amounted to $10.5 million in the week ended Nov. 15, from net longs of $2.36 billion in the previous week.
Investors have turned bearish on the dollar after a tamer-than-expected U.S. inflation report for October that came out on Nov. 10, supporting expectations that the Federal Reserve could slow its tightening pace. That report was the strongest indication yet that inflation may be turning the corner, some analysts said.
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For the month of November, the dollar has so far fallen 4%, on pace for its largest monthly decline since September 2010.
The euro’s net long position, meanwhile, rose to 112,666 contracts, their largest since June 2021.
“Recent trends have been heavily influenced by aggressive covering of EUR gross shorts – particularly in the aftermath of the ECB (European Central Bank) taking its key policy rate back above zero,” Scotiabank wrote in a research note after the CFTC data.
Barclays (LON:), in a recent research note, raised its year-end forecast in euro/dollar to $1.03, from its previous estimate of $0.97. Going forward, Barclays said the euro is underpinned by sufficiently improved gas and oil supplies, with shortages “no longer a risk factor constraining production.”
In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin futures’ net long positioning rose to 571 contracts in the week ended Nov. 15, from 18 the previous week. This week’s net longs were the largest since Oct. 11.
The collapse of digital asset exchange FTX has reverberated across the crypto industry. FTX filed for bankruptcy protection in the United States last week in the highest-profile crypto blowup to date. FTX’s implosion came after traders pulled $6 billion from the platform in three days and rival exchange Binance abandoned a rescue deal.
Japanese Yen (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)
$6.458 billion
15 Nov 2022 Prior week
week
Long 33,797 37,201
Short 99,639 112,459
Net -65,842 -75,258
EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)
$-13.547 billion
15 Nov 2022 Prior week
week
Long 239,369 232,317
Short 126,703 124,718
Net 112,666 107,599
POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,500 pounds sterling)
$2.865 billion
15 Nov 2022 Prior week
week
Long 34,699 36,630
Short 67,533 76,365
Net -32,834 -39,735
SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)
$2.175 billion
15 Nov 2022 Prior week
week
Long 2,271 4,865
Short 19,098 22,019
Net -16,827 -17,154
CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)
$1.375 billion
15 Nov 2022 Prior week
week
Long 37,456 39,586
Short 50,376 58,050
Net -12,920 -18,464
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 dollars)
$3.036 billion
15 Nov 2022 Prior week
week
Long 33,214 33,288
Short 77,963 79,971
Net -44,749 -46,683
MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos)
$-1.528 billion
15 Nov 2022 Prior week
week
Long 197,700 192,024
Short 129,849 132,410
Net 67,851 59,614
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 New Zealand dollars)
$0.379 billion
15 Nov 2022 Prior week
week
Long 15,285 18,085
Short 21,913 24,452
Net -6,628 -6,367
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